The prediction problem
March 1st, 2007 by 
Alan Schwartz
A major problem in all preference or utility assessment, particularly holistic assessments that require the visualization of a health state in its entirety, is that people must often be asked to assess their preferences for health states that they have not yet experienced. That is, they must predict how they will feel about future health states that may arise as a result of their decisions.
Unfortunately, people are generally poor predictors of future experiences for several reasons.
Posted in Valuing health | 
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